The tomato harvest in southern Europe is significantly weaker than expected this year. In Italy, around 60 per cent of production had been completed by the end of August, with around 40 per cent still outstanding. At an average of 65 to 70 tonnes per hectare, the yield in the fields is around 10 to 15 per cent below the usual values.
Initial projections indicate between 2.9 and a maximum of 3 million tonnes for northern Italy and between 2.3 and 2.5 million tonnes for southern Italy. Overall, Italian production is likely to be around 5.2 million tonnes - significantly less than the 5.8 to 5.9 million tonnes originally expected. The situation is particularly tense for organic tomatoes: The losses here are estimated at 25 to 30 per cent. Many existing sales contracts are unlikely to be fulfilled. This means that organic tomatoes are in short supply for the third year in a row.
There are currently difficulties, particularly in Apulia: Only small quantities are reaching the factories, and at very high raw material prices. As a result, the programmes cannot be completed as planned, which is driving up production costs considerably. The situation is slightly better in the north, but the low yield per hectare is also confirmed here - especially for organic products.
A similar trend is also evident in Spain. Instead of the predicted 2.7 to 2.8 million tonnes, only 2.3 to 2.4 million tonnes are expected. The harvest is expected to continue until 25 to 27 September, or even longer if the rain continues. However, this is considered problematic: the fruit cannot be harvested or can only be harvested after a delay, and the factories come to a standstill.
The situation in Portugal looks somewhat better. Here, yields are roughly in line with expectations. Of the 1.4 million tonnes originally forecast, 1.3 to 1.35 million are now expected. As the Portuguese started very late (between 10 and 15 August), more than 60 per cent of the harvest still has to be brought in in September. Although the fields look good, rain could also severely disrupt the process.
And in Turkey? The harvest is lower than the average of previous years. The price of fresh tomatoes is quite high and is at the same level as in the EU, which makes it difficult for Turkish producers to sell tomato products to the EU. The factories are running slowly and are only using 50 to 60 per cent of their capacity. Demand is weak. It was already clear at the beginning of the year that the harvest would be significantly lower - in some regions even up to 40 per cent below the previous year. Later plantings were unable to compensate for the shortfall. AMITOM officially expects 2.2 million tonnes, some sources expect even less. Heatwaves have concentrated the harvest, meaning that the season in the main region of Bursa will end around 20 September. In Konya, processing will continue until mid-October, but also with lower volumes. Overall, the quality of the raw materials is considered good to average.
For the market, this means that things will remain quiet for the time being. Contracts are being concluded only hesitantly as buyers and sellers await further developments.
A final look at China: tomato production there will also end in around ten days. The final volume in barrels is likely to be less than 0.55 million tonnes - after 1.6 million tonnes in the previous year and an expectation of 0.6 million tonnes at the start of the season. This means that the harvest will fall well short of forecasts.
