The most critical phase is expected between October 2026 and March 2027 – with far-reaching consequences for various product groups. We are assessing the situation based on current information:
At the beginning of the week, sea surface temperatures around +2.7 °C above the long-term average were recorded off Peru and Ecuador. As a result, tuna stocks are moving to greater depths and more widespread areas. For tuna fishing, this means lower catch rates, higher fuel consumption and an overall more time-consuming fishery, which is driving up raw material prices for the processing industry. In Ecuador, for example, a tonne of skipjack is already trading at USD 2,150. The situation is similar for anchovies: as water temperatures rise, stocks retreat into deeper water layers, making catches more difficult.
However, on land too, El Niño leads to various challenges for food production. For instance, heat, drought and irregular precipitation make the cultivation and harvesting of pineapples in Thailand more difficult. Other product groups such as sweetcorn could also be affected.
How the situation will develop specifically remains to be seen. Our team is keeping an eye on all scientific data as well as market reactions. Via our channels Food News, Instagram and LinkedIn) we will continue to share all important news.
